Donald Trump is once again floating tariffs on Hollywood. Days before a potential government shutdown, the president used his Truth Social platform to threaten a “100% Tariff on any and all movies that are made outside of the United States,” while also taking swipes at California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

It’s not the first time Trump has raised the idea. Back in May, following a Mar-a-Lago meeting with Jon Voight and producer Steven Paul, the president signaled similar intentions. That discussion centered on a “Trump-friendly” blueprint featuring federal tax incentives, tax code changes, and subsidies for U.S. exhibitors and production companies. Tariffs were mentioned only briefly, though Trump’s latest remarks put them back on the table.

Exactly what qualifies as “made” outside the U.S. remains murky — whether it refers to on-location filming, post-production, or the entire global chain of feature production. With modern studio projects spanning continents, enforcement would be complicated at best.

More broadly, industry insiders say attention has shifted toward incentives, not tariffs. Gov. Newsom’s push to nearly double California’s annual film tax credit program from $330 million to $750 million reflects the escalating arms race between states like New York, New Jersey and Georgia — and international hubs in the U.K., Canada and Australia. According to tracker ProdPro, U.S. production spend hit $7.2 billion in the first half of 2025, down 27 percent year-over-year, part of a global contraction in high-budget projects.

That backdrop has fueled momentum for CAP — the Coalition for American Production — a growing alliance of U.S. business owners with deep roots in film and television. CAP is pressing for federal incentive structure to keep productions domestic and counter the lure of cheaper foreign markets. Industry advocates argue this approach is far more realistic than tariffs, especially given looming political gridlock in Washington.

Meanwhile, L.A.-based efforts like the “Stay in L.A.” campaign and Mayor Karen Bass’ pledges to streamline permitting continue to push local solutions. Trump’s tariff rhetoric may play to protectionist instincts, but for Hollywood, federal incentives remain the language everyone understands.

As for Paul, who recently acquired Avenue Six Studios in Van Nuys and is producing The Last Firefighter with Voight and Kelsey Grammer in California despite higher costs, he views Trump’s attention as a net gain. “[Trump] loves the entertainment business, and it’s not a Democrat or Republican business,” he told THR.